Below is a graph of how I did vs. the S&P 500 in 2010. Not too badly. I got a little bit lucky... or perhaps totally lucky. I won't go into details, but I didn't do any selling after the first month and just increased my position by % allocation every so often - just when I thought things seemed "low" resisting the urge to sell when things were "high" whatever low and high mean to you. It was tough holding on in April/May.
My main guess was that Citibank would bounce back. That proved to be less true than I expected. The speculation that banking was ending as we know it and that C would get crushed because it was "owned by the government" I thought was pretty over rated. Fundamentally I think that banks will come back just fine because they kind of run the whole economic system and I have confidence that people who run the system and make the rules are likely to survive. I suspect the major banks will soon figure out where the next big bubb... investment opportunity... is and will continue to do well. The mistake, IMO, is when the investors working for the banks start to believe what they say too much. When you're betting with other people's money it seems kind of foolish to throw your own in there as well... If anyone wants to give me money to bet with and cut me a % when I win and not require that I pay anything back when I lose, I'm in!
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